Federal approval of medical marijuana would be on the 2016 schedule were it not for the nature of the product. With 22 states out of 50, plus Washington DC having made it legal – and Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State approving initiatives – simple math would appear to have the day. So why is medical marijuana not on Obama’s agenda for his twilight 2016 session? The man seems personally positive about it.

The potential medical benefits could finally tip the scales, with notable success for stubborn conditions like Alzheimer’s, Epilepsy, Parkinson’s, Type 2 Diabetes, and some types of Cancer responding well in clinical trials. If medical science cannot crack these tough nuts, then why, oh why can’t millions of chronically or terminally ill people have it? Especially since a recent CBS poll found 84% of respondents in favor of medical marijuana useage.

If Congress Wanted To, What Could It Do?

Obama may be standing back because he does not want to risk a major, deeply divisive defeat on Capitol Hill. There is a good chance he would get a dusting off considering the current Republican mood. That leaves two routes open for Congress.

PLAN A: Congress could downgrade marijuana from Schedule 1 (no medical value and has a high potential for abuse) to Schedule 2 (a high potential for abuse, with use potentially leading to dependency). This would remove the barriers that are stifling research, and reclassify marijuana as an addictive substance requiring control.

PLAN B: Congress could decriminalize using marijuana from a felony to a misdemeanor. This would remove the risk of jail time for first-time offenders, and those found in possession of small amounts of marijuana / smoking gear. Many states took this line before legalizing medical marijuana completely. This allowed them space to check for changes in societal values such as upticks in DWIs / DUIs

What Lies Ahead

There is no incentive for Republicans to upset conservative supporters in the run-up to the November 2016 election. Many lawmakers still have a genuine concern that the product is not entirely safe and want repeated clinical tests.

Despite this, there are signs of an accelerating campaign for recreational marijuana in California, Nevada and Ohio – and there will be more to come. With over half of America supporting a fair deal for cannabis lovers, the market is still bullish and it could likely be a good time to invest before the rush.